Who Will Win Best Picture: Avatar or Hurt Locker?
The Atlantic
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February 25, 2010
By Lynda Obst
I had lunch in the Universal commissary last week with a
talented Exec VP of production, and before we ordered our salads, she asked me
if I thought the Academy would punish Avatar for being so successful.
It's a revealing question, indicating the resentment the studios sometimes feel
toward the Academy for dismissing their best Oscar contenders in favor of less
commercial indies.
I answered, "The Academy gave Best Picture to Titanic and Lord of the Rings, and those were
the biggest movies of the year."
"Yes," she agreed. "But it would be insane this year if Avatar doesn't win." "If it doesn't, it will
be because the story is the least interesting part of the movie, and the
Academy loves story," I offered.
She made a funny face.
THIS YEAR it's particularly easy to
interpret Academy-think, as the Globes increasingly (to the Academy's dismay)
predict the Oscars, and there are few hard calls among the big races that won't
mirror the Globes. But there is a feeling in the air that an upset could be in
the offing for Best Picture,
and my smart exec's question was reflective of this talk.
The big money, of course, is on Avatar to win, and it probably will, because Avatar is a production and a phenomenon
of literally epic proportions. The industry can't afford not to honor a movie
that pulled every pokey out of every quadrant that ever existed (and some that never did before), with many viewers seeing it
more than twice.
The movie has transformed the business, demonstrating to an industry paralyzed
by piracy that the way to get bodies into seats at theaters is to create events
that aren't downloadable. Moreover, the scale of the undertaking itself, the
grandeur of its technological achievement in an increasingly technologically
driven business is an epic victory on its own merits, employing thousands of
new breeds of employees. Filmmakers have been inspired by the techniques James Cameron innovated,
opticians are inventing new personalized 3-D glasses, and applications and
spin-offs the rest of us can't even imagine yet are in the works.
But it's not a given that Avatar will win. The
Academy isn't the industry: it's a wholly separate, somewhat subversive subset
of the industry. And the Academy voter prides himself on his individuality and
independence. He thinks of himself as a sophisticated cineaste, and (though aging) as hip and informed. And
when the studios decide that, say, Benjamin
Button is going to win, it sometimes instead turns out that deep down,
inside the soultree of the Academy (as Avatar would say),
the heart is beating to the tune of "Jai Ho," and it's Slumdog that wins.
This year, it's Kathryn
Bigelow's Hurt Locker—an intensely psychological thriller about
soldiers working together in Iraq—that poses the biggest threat to the
mainstream favorite. Cinematically, philosophically, and technologically, Avatar and Hurt Locker couldn't be more impossible to compare. They're almost the inverse of one
another. The weakest component of Avatar is its story, which might best be
described as Tarzan, Fern Gully, Pocahontas, The Lion King, and Dances With Wolves all rolled into one. With Hurt Locker, on the other hand, it's the story that's
unique, as opposed to its technology, which was necessarily simple.
What's more, the darker subtext of Avatar's simple story—rage at the Iraq
war (then directed at Bush)—now feels outdated. The movie's hard-hearted
American colonel—a stand-in for hard-hearted American power—is
supplanted in today's headlines by Pentagon brass apologizing for having hit 12 civilians by mistake in our Afghanistan offensive.
Hurt Locker's complex portrayal
of conflicted soldiers, on the other hand, feels very fresh. The movie has no
politics—it doesn't venture to say who's the good guy and who's the bad.
Rather, it's an existential, living-breathing connection to our soldiers'
emotional peril on the ground. And while Avatar is the highest-grossing movie of all time (having brought in 680 million
dollars in the U.S. and 1.3 billion abroad), if Hurt
Locker wins, it would be the lowest-grossing Best Picture ever. It
is astonishing and beautiful that these two movies are even from the same
industry.
Of course, what the academy most likes to do when faced with such a dilemma is
split the baby. Which in this case would mean giving the Best Picture to Avatar, and Best Director to Kathryn Bigelow. But as
the winds increasingly turn to a Best Picture upset, the split-baby scenario
could in fact turn out to be Cameron's best outcome. So the last hour could be
the most exciting of the long night, as it should be and not often is. Though
no one will actually be allowed to speak—at least not spontaneously,
because the producers won't let them. There won't be
enough time left, due to the Academy's decision this year to shake things up by
having 10 Best Picture nominees.
The net effect is unlikely to change the race (despite some numerological spinning going on at the Weinstein
Co. for Basterds), so much as to make the
show suffer from compression. At the very moment we get ready for a memorable
moment of personal revelation, that blasted music will come up, robbing us of
any fun because the producers have run out of time, what with 10 clips,
innumerable teleprompted presenters, and all the scripted gaiety. (Where are
the producers of Jersey Shore when you
need them?...)